PHILADELPHIA — A half-dozen sixth-grade teachers sat in a circle inside an empty classroom, poring over sheets of data showing their students’ attendance, grades and discipline. They were looking for children who were sliding, whose records indicated they were in danger of falling off the track to high school graduation.....

.....Whether such efforts can change a child’s trajectory is still an open question, but many educators think early warning systems hold great promise. Emerging evidence suggests that they can be an important force in reshaping how schools identify and serve at-risk students.....

.....Other early-warning systems rely on bringing additional resources into the schools. One of the most prominent is Diplomas Now, which is used by dozens of schools, including Grover Washington in Philadelphia.....

.....Balfanz and his colleagues were among the first to show the predictive power of the “ABCs” — attendance, behavior and course performance — in a study of Philadelphia middle schools a decade ago. Sixth-graders who fell short on any of the ABCs had a 75 percent chance of dropping out of school. That meant that if a student failed math or English for the year, received an unsatisfactory mark for behavior on a report card, or had an attendance rate below 80 percent, they probably would not be walking at graduation six years later.....

.....But an independent evaluation conducted by the nonprofit research firm MDRC, released Tuesday, suggests that the program has a modest but positive effect on increasing the number of students who are considered on track for graduation — those whose attendance rates exceed 85 percent, who are suspended fewer than three days, and who are passing both English and math.....

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