... The president's plan to tie aid to college performance builds on his previous proposal to expand the Perkins Loan program and award additional aid to colleges that keep tuition down, provide "good value," and serve low-income students effectively. That idea, which has appeared in various forms in the last five presidential budgets, hasn't gotten much traction in Congress, though some college and advocacy groups have embraced it. 

More than a dozen states appropriate some money to colleges based on performance measures, such as credit or degree completion. But only a handful allocate a large portion of their tax dollars using such formulas, and it's too soon to say whether the nascent experiments are working....

...The idea of using student aid as an incentive for students' timely progress is being tested by the nonprofit research group MDRC, with support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The project provides students with extra aid if they take a minimum course load and maintain a C average — an effort to encourage them to complete college faster. Early results suggest that the additional aid has had a "modest" effect on student achievement but little impact on retention. 

President Obama has taken a slightly different approach from the research group, proposing stricter standards of "satisfactory academic progress" for existing aid, not new money. That idea — "a nod to shared responsibility" — is more likely to get support from Republicans than Democrats, said Andrew P. Kelly, director of the Center on Higher Education Reform at the American Enterprise Institute. 

MDRC, along with Ticas, is also testing the idea of disbursing Pell Grants gradually, rather than in lump-sum payments at the start of each semester. The hope is that the incremental sums will let working students spend more time on academics. So far, the groups have tested whether the idea is feasible but not whether it is effective, said Robert J. Ivry, a senior vice president of MDRC. He said researchers don't yet know whether the project can be scaled up, or what the effects of doing so would be. 

Mr. Kelly predicted "tough sledding" for all of the president's performance-based proposals, noting that even his base is ambivalent about the ideas. 

"I'm not sure who his constituency is," he said. Even if student and consumer groups get on board, they're outmatched by the college lobby "when it comes to money and influence." 

Ultimately, the most that may come from President Obama's bold agenda to curb college costs is increased transparency (for good or bad), and an increased enrollment in income-based repayment. In the end, the president can't remake higher education on his own. He can only shine a light on its problems, and exhort states and colleges to step up and do more.

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